GEELONG SYNTHETIC
ELEPHANT & CASTLE HOTEL (68) Race 6 - 2:55pm
2,200 m
ZATOPEK LANE

DOOMBEN
ASCEND SALES FRED BEST CLASSIC Race 6 - 1,350 m
OUR SMOKIN' ROCK
KIRKS DOOMBEN CUP Race 7 - 2,000 m
MAWINGO
DARLEY BRC SPRINT Race 8 - 1,350 m
SMOKIN' JOEY
MORNINGTON
JACK DOW MEMORIAL HRDL Race 2 - 3,320 m
ABOVE AVERAGE
MONEY NOW HCP (58) Race 6 - 1,508 m
PETRUSHKA

From Berlin to Balnarring

By Danny Power

It's not often you can say on Victoria Derby Day at Flemington, "I don't think we saw the Melbourne Cup winner here today," but that was probably the case on Saturday as the last runner crossed the line in the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes.

The Mackinnon (weight-for-age, 2000m) and the Group 3 The Lexus (2500m) have traditionally been the races on Derby Day for the Cup runners to have their final hit-outs. The best run of the day was often a big shortener in the Cup betting markets.

If the Cup winner wasn't at Flemington on Derby Day, then which one of many imports who stayed at home in its box is likely to prevail? Last year it was the French creating history with Americain, but this year I am tipping the winner to come from Germany - Lucas Cranach.

The handsome near-black horse produced the best Cup trial in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup - fifth behind Southern Speed - and there is a strong smell of confidence coming from the Freedman brothers Anthony and Lee at their Markdel training farm deep down the Mornington Peninsula.

Lee Freedman, who has trained five Melbourne Cup winners, has relinquished his position as Markdel's head man to Anthony, for 25 years his assistant. It would a triumph for Anthony if he could win the Cup with his first runner.

On Saturday, as the Freedmans have done with their past three Cup winners - Doriemus (1995) and Makybe Diva (2004 and 2005) - they took Lucas Cranach away from his home track for a searching final hit-out.

Doriemus went to Sandown and Makybe Diva did her work at Mornington. Lucas Cranach was floated to the Balnarring picnic track, where he galloped with a partner. The Freedmans and a couple of Lucas Cranach's owners were there, but as the horses emerged from the gloom, only the cockatoos perched on the running rail were disturbed. They screeched their disapproval.

It's a long way from Berlin to Balnarring, but Lucas Cranach, according to those close to the camp, has thrived since the Caulfield Cup and recovered from a nagging foot injury that threatened to put him on the sidelines.

After studying the Caulfield Cup replay, I am convinced that Lucas Cranach would have won had jockey Corey Brown stayed on the rails. As it was, under instructions to get clear running out wide, Brown and Lucas Cranach were shuffled back to near last before unleashing a long, wide run from the 900 metres. Between the 800m and the 400m, Lucas Cranach carved out a couple 200m splits in 11.7 secs, but it was only in the last 100 metres that his run gave way.

"I only had him about 80 per cent right for the Caulfield Cup," Lee Freedman said on Cox Plate day. "You will see a lot fitter horse on Cup day."

Lucas Cranach has the right jockey with great knowledge of how to ride the Cup. Brown was unlucky not to win the race on Bauer in 2008 (beaten a lip by Viewed), but he bounced back in 2009 to win on Shocking.

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The Freedman brothers took a decision in 2002 to switch from a metropolitan training regime to a unique environment on the Mornington Peninsula - they built the world-class complex known as Markdel

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